贸易自由化与中国国内工业行业的生产利润

本文在一个中间投入品生产决策模型基础上,利用2003-2010年中国37个工业行业的面板数据以及中国的进口关税数据表,研究了中国贸易自由化过程中的关税减让政策对国内工业行业利润水平的影响。研究结论表明：关税减让政策对国内工业行业利润水平的影响是多方面的。进口关税的削减导致竞争加剧,会降低行业的利润水平,而受到关税保护的行业有可能获得更高的利润;与此同时,进口关税削减导致中间品关税的降低,降低了行业的生产成本从而增加了行业的盈利能力,但是,这种成本降低效应仅对大中型企业样本显著,而规模以上企业样本并不显著。本文的结果也意味着,关税对国内工业仍然起到了一定的保护作用,不同类型的企业在关税减让过程中获得的效应可能是不同的,在进行关税减让谈判时应该充分考虑到这一点。     

Who bears the burden of social insurance? Evidence from Japanese health and long-term care insurance data

Using the society-managed health insurance data, which is cross-sectional time-series and covers 1670 health insurance societies for seven years (FY1995–2001), we found for the first time in Japan that the majority of the employers' contribution to health insurance is shifting back onto the employees in the form of wage reduction. On the other hand, we cannot find such evidence for the contribution to long-term care insurance using a two-year (FY2000–2001) panel data set. The difference can be theoretically explained by how employees value the contribution relative to social security benefits they enjoy. J. Japanese Int. Economies 18 (4) (2004) 565–581.     

美国构建先进制造创新网络谋求引领制造业变革

为了重新振兴美国的制造业,美国提出设立国家先进制造先导计划,通过构建国家先进制造创新网络以确保美国在先进制造领域的领先地位。美国的制造业振兴计划能否引发新一轮制造技术研发竞争甚至技术革命,是否会对我国制造业产生极大冲击,需要认真思考。通过分析研究美国提出制造业振兴计划的背景和目的及其对我国制造业发展的启示,提出了我国应积极而谨慎地应对并有选择地在关键杨心技术方面率先取得突破的对策建议。     

The Impact of Automation in Service Industries＂ An Empirical Study

Academic research into service industries has explored the characteristics of interpersonal interactions between employees and customers, but there are few studies addressing the issues of consumer interaction with technology and its influence on the objectives and results of the operations subsystem. This study examines the elements of the service encounter, and the changes automation originates in them and their relationships. The paper also examines changes in the elements and results of the operations subsystem, as a result of automation. We propose that the customer＇s relationship with employees and/or technology and automated systems for the service impact the objectives and results of the operations subsystem, all of which could have an effect on the company＇s competitive position. The empirical study is focused on four industries, namely, toll motorways, car parks, carwash and video/DVD rental companies, in an attempt to identify objectives that lead companies to implement automated processes affecting the customer＇s relationship with the company. The hypotheses generated are contrasted with a structural equation modelling. The results confirm that the customer＇s relationship with employees and automated systems for the service impacts the objectives and results of the operations subsystem. Also, the results show how automation can enable firms simultaneously to achieve acceptable levels of flexibility and productivity, two dimensions that have traditionally been considered opposites.     

境外旅游业减排对策研究进展

旅游业减排对策是近年来国际可持续旅游研究领域中的核心命题。历年来有关旅游业减排对策研究文献的回顾表明,随着国际旅游业界对全球气候变化问题的不断反思,以及对旅游业碳排放水平认知的不断深化,研究人员分别针对旅游者、旅游企业、政府、旅游相关行业协会与组织机构、旅游目的地等不同对象,就旅游业减排的技术方法、管理措施、消费行为方式及相关的减排政策进行了大量的研究,并在可再生能源利用、低碳旅游消费、旅游"碳管理"、自愿"碳抵消"机制、航空"碳税"政策及"碳中和目的地"等领域形成了一些共识。     

国际海运碳交易机制下减排产品供给企业竞争策略——基于船东减排产品类型偏好

以国际海运碳交易机制的实施为背景,在考虑船东对减排产品类型偏好具有差异的情况下,基于Hotelling模型,研究提供不同类型减排产品企业之间的竞争策略。通过分析Nash博弈和Stackelberg博弈的均衡结果,得到船东对某类减排产品偏好的增加,会促进该类减排产品的价格上涨,市场份额扩大和收益增加。并且,在Stackelberg博弈中,主导企业获得较Nash博弈下更大的收益,而跟随企业的收益变化取决于船东减排偏好与减排产品成本之间的关系。     

中国碳排放的组合预测与减排缺口分析

预测我国碳排放量的变动趋势,对国家进行宏观经济管理和碳减排工作具有重要的参考价值。（1）利用中国1997～2011年碳排放数据,分别采用三次指数平滑模型、灰色模型、二次指数模型建立中国碳排放的单项预测模型;（2）采用标准差法进行非负权重分配,建立了中国碳排放的组合预测模型,结果表明,组合预测模型的精度高于单项预测模型。（3）应用该组合模型对中国2014～2026年的中国碳排放量。预测表明,中国碳排放存在较大的减排缺口,碳减排需要从优化产业结构、优化能源消费结构和改善能源利用效率上进行。     

中国节能减排潜力测度与优化路径

在综合考虑能源利用和污染物排放的基础上,利用数据包络分析方法构建节能潜力和减排潜力的测度模型。利用1996—2010年中国30个省(自治区、直辖市)的相关数据,计算其节能潜力和减排潜力。基于此,利用ArcGIS10.0软件分析中国节能潜力和减排潜力的时空演进情况,找到各省节能减排的最优路径。结果表明:整体上看,中国具有较大的节能减排潜力,其中节能减排潜力较大的省份主要有山西、贵州、云南、陕西和甘肃等;随着时间的推移,中国的节能减排潜力呈明显的"西-中-东"阶梯状分布格局,节能、减排的重点区域均有向西部地区转移的倾向;中国节能减排的重点监控省份可选择的优化路径有渐进式和飞跃式两种。     

深圳火电行业碳排放现状、减排成本与配额分配

火电行业是深圳碳交易的重要部门,2011年火电装机比重为51%,计划到2015年该比重为54%。在深圳火电行业中,煤电发电量约占46%,碳排放量占62%。目前深圳火电行业的碳强度已属先进水平,减排潜力有限。在借鉴国外电力行业碳配额分配经验的基础上,深圳市根据碳排放强度分配原则、区别分类原则和稀缺性原则,制定了符合市情的火电行业碳配额分配方案。     

Household spending patterns and flow of ecotourism income into communities around Liwonde National Park,Malawi

Rural Malawi is largely characterised by high levels of poverty, unemployment and high population densities. It is also seen as the ‘warm heart of Africa’, which, together with its abundant natural resources, makes it an excellent destination for international ecotourists. This paper looks at the impact of ecotourism employment on poverty reduction and the flow of ecotourism income into the villages adjacent to Liwonde National Park. Extensive questionnaire surveys were conducted with staff employed in ecotourism as well as with rural households in the villages adjacent to the Park. Comparisons of household income and social welfare highlight the important role of ecotourism employment in lifting people in these rural villages above the poverty line. Household spending patterns illustrate the flow of income from ecotourism into the local economy and the important impact of this on local socio-economic development. Suggestions for increasing local multiplier effects of ecotourism are put forward.